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UnofficialAP StatisticsUnit 5 of 9

AP Statistics Unit 5: Sampling Distributions

Behavior of sample proportions and means; the Central Limit Theorem.

Unit overview

A statistic such as p^\hat{p} or xˉ\bar{x} varies from sample to sample. Its sampling distribution describes that variation and is the foundation of every confidence interval and significance test in the course.

For a sample proportion, the mean is pp and the standard deviation is p(1−p)/n\sqrt{p(1-p)/n}; the shape is approximately normal when np≥10np \ge 10 and n(1−p)≥10n(1-p) \ge 10. For a sample mean, the mean is μ\mu and the standard deviation is σ/n\sigma/\sqrt{n}; the Central Limit Theorem says the shape is approximately normal for large nn even when the population is skewed. The 10% condition, n≤0.1Nn \le 0.1N, justifies these formulas when sampling without replacement.

Key topics

Normal distribution
z-scores and areas under the normal curve.
Sampling distribution of p^\hat{p}
Centre pp, spread p(1−p)/n\sqrt{p(1-p)/n}, large counts condition.
Sampling distribution of xˉ\bar{x}
Centre μ\mu, spread σ/n\sigma/\sqrt{n}, Central Limit Theorem.
Bias and variability
Unbiased estimators centre on the parameter; larger samples reduce spread.

Worked example

In a population, p=0.4p = 0.4. For random samples of n=150n = 150, find the standard deviation of p^\hat{p}.

  1. Check large counts: 150(0.4)=60150(0.4) = 60 and 150(0.6)=90150(0.6) = 90, both at least 10.
  2. σp^=0.4⋅0.6150=0.0016\sigma_{\hat{p}} = \sqrt{\dfrac{0.4 \cdot 0.6}{150}} = \sqrt{0.0016}.
  3. σp^=0.04\sigma_{\hat{p}} = 0.04.

Answer: σp^=0.04\sigma_{\hat{p}} = 0.04

Common mistakes

  • Confusing the distribution of the population, the distribution of one sample and the sampling distribution of a statistic.
  • Thinking the Central Limit Theorem makes the population normal; it describes the shape of the sampling distribution of xˉ\bar{x}.
  • Forgetting that quadrupling the sample size only halves the standard deviation.

Exam tips

  • Always name which distribution you are describing: population, sample or sampling distribution.
  • Show the condition checks with numbers, not just the words conditions met.

See the AP Statistics exam format and every unit on the course page.